The Libertarian Party of Massachusetts met in Worcester this past Saturday, electing their new State Committee, as well as to conduct general party business. The State Committee, elected every year, is responsible for managing the day-by-day operations of the Libertarian Party of Massachusetts, as well as electing its leadership. In complying with Party rules, vote counting is to be handled and tabulated by an unbiased observer whom has no official membership with the Libertarian Party.
Once again filling that role, and in the spirit of promoting a healthy civic duty, I assisted in their State Committee election process, and have taken the liberty of listing the convention tabulations here for the sake of keeping a certified public record for the LPMA.
Libertarian Party of Massachusetts 2014 State Committee
Approval Voting – Candidate’s final vote total is decided by the number of approval votes subtract the number of disapproval votes – Highest nine win. In the case where nine candidates are not available, vacancies can be filled via the State Committee at a future date.
George Phillies – 16 Favorable, 0 Unfavorable, 0 Abstentions
Robert Clark – 16 Favorable, 0 Unfavorable, 0 Abstentions
Daniel Fishman – 16 Favorable, 0 Unfavorable, 0 Abstentions
Vermont’s self-identified “democratic socialist” Senator announced in Iowa on Sunday that he’s considering seeking the seat of the bully pulpit. Such a move would be the first time since the 1920 campaign of Eugene V. Debs where an openly socialist candidate with elected experience would have pitched a bid to pursue the highest office in America.
Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at The New Populism Conference.
The infamous Vermont firebrand, famous for going after the Koch Brothers, Wall Street, and the “billionaire class”, is now serving his 2nd term in the Senate. Originally an outspoken agitator for socialism and active third party member, he started off under the small Liberty Union party label, a socialist party based out of Vermont, where he mounted a number of runs for statewide office in the 70s with minimal success. At the turn of the decade, he absolved himself of party labels set his sights on the mayoralty of Burlington. There he was elected, numerous times, and proceeded to work his way through the ranks, becoming the state’s lone congressman, and later one of its two senators.
While Hillary Clinton has yet to officially declare her candidacy for the Presidency, the tea leaves read that she’s a candidate in every aspect except name only. To date, no serious candidate has materialized to challenge the would be political heavyweight, with many seeing 2016 as “her time” to be the Democratic Party’s standard-bearer. However, a sizable contingency remains skeptical of her ability to deliver the mantle of commander-in-chief to the Democratic Party, as well as a general concern with policies she would enact once in office, leaving ample room for a candidate like Sanders to make a splash.
As a Democrat, early polling shows Sanders as a long-shot, but his placement could very easily change. With a recent dissatisfaction with Clinton, a general unease with policies in the Obama administration, and an increasing disdain for both parties in Washington, he could very well play a role similar to that of Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012, or Howard Dean in 2004, and directly appeal to those disenfranchised with the current political system. Furthermore, those who feel Clinton isn’t progressive enough could find a home in a candidate Sanders, which could antagonize Clinton up until the convention.
For Bernie, he’s looking to do much more than just shake up the race- he’s looking to win. Last Sunday, at the “Politics on Tap” conference in Washington D.C., Sanders made it clear he’s looking to do more than be a spoiler. “If I run, I will run to win”, he said. Such a statement implies that Sanders is seriously looking to run within the constructs of the Democratic Party, and such a decision would definitely not be without merit.
Sen. Bernie Sanders speaks at a rally in support of a constitutional amendment to overturn the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision.
While various news reports will continue to claim that Sanders could mount a bid as a Democrat, an independent, or both, the truth of the matter is it’s not really that simple. The American political system is a complex puzzle, constructed from the various states and their individual laws governing the electoral system. As a result, Sanders would be forced to decide between one of the two options if he aims to make a realistic attempt, as each state has different thresholds for what it takes to be on the November ballot, and some incorporate “sore loser” laws. For example, Gary Johnson, the former governor of New Mexico and the Libertarian Party’s 2012 nominee for president, was kept off of the ballot in Michigan, as he appeared on it as a candidate for the Republican presidential primary earlier in that year.
To further complicate issues, America hasn’t had an independent president since the days of Washington, and there’s a legitimate reason for this. For an independent Sanders, he would start off with the immediate disadvantage of having to organize an effective electoral apparatus in each state, and would most likely have to rely purely on grassroots support. Such problems have plagued numerous candidates in the past, bogging them down with legal battles and signature petitions. An independent Sanders could utilize preexisting ballot lines, such as those of the Peace and Freedom Party, Socialist Party, or Green Party, but, once again, it ultimately comes down to the decision of such individual state parties.
Photo originally from the the Huffington Post.
It is unclear of the ultimate extent that an independent Sanders would have on the November race, but it’s accepted that a Sanders run would be a challenge from the left, which would easily siphon hard numbers and funding from Clinton, assuming she’s the Democratic nominee. Furthermore, a Sanders challenge could possibly force Clinton to make a leftward shift on her positions, which could shake her appeal to more independent voters.
This also isn’t the first time that Sanders has flirted with the idea of running for President. Earlier this year, Sanders proposed the notion that he was mulling a run, and was met with harsh criticism from another third party icon of the American left. Ralph Nader, five time presidential candidate and face of American leftist politics, blasted Sanders on his perceived lack of correspondence and unwillingness to work with him in encouraging progressive policies, calling him a “lone ranger”.
In all of Sander’s ambiguity, it can be hard to pin down what he’s ultimately going to do, but what is for certain is that regardless of the path he takes, he’s going to be the first shake-up of many on the road to 2016.
With the close of another September primary, there was one question that rested on the minds of many- candidate and voters alike- who participated: “where is everybody?” Poll-workers from elections past recall when lines of early voters were exactly that, when the workers didn’t outnumber the voters, and when rush hour was more than just a few soccer mom’s bringing their children in to use the bathrooms before game practice. Citizens are raised to believe in the old moniker of “one man, one vote”, but lately in modern day Massachusetts, you might find your vote to be worth somewhere closer to that of ten.
Scenes such as this one occurred all across the Commonwealth.
“I didn’t even know”
This marks another year of depressingly low turnout numbers, and while this isn’t a problem specific only to Massachusetts, it is one that has achieved record levels in the Bay State. With over 4.2 million registered voters, about as much as all of the rest of New England’s registered voters combined, Massachusetts continues to struggle to motivate even a fifth of them to turn-out to vote in non-presidential elections. Secretary of the Commonwealth, William Francis Galvin, estimated that turnout would taper off at about 17%, and current uncertified results show that, unfortunately, he was right.
Unlike in years past, voters from both major parties were presented with contested elections. Depending on the town, some voters found they had more choices than others, but every Massachusetts resident who pulled a ballot this week was guaranteed at least one major contested race. Yet even then, as schools, halls, and polling precincts across the Commonwealth opened their doors, many found that it was once again the same old voters who come out to vote. Galvin put the blame on a general malaise with those who’ve decided to try their luck in the arena of politics, but for many, it was a much more simpler reason as to why they didn’t show. They just didn’t know.
A Fisher, a Baker, an Election Day Maker
While the stage was primarily set for the Massachusetts Democratic Party’s race for a successor to governor Deval Patrick, a lone spotlight was occasionally flashed over the fight between the MassGOP’s Charlie Baker and Mark Fisher. That there was a race at all came as a surprise for a number of the MassGOP’s brass, as Fisher wasn’t expected to survive the convention. The threat of one legal snafu later, and Fisher was granted access to compete in the primary, saving the MassGOP both a damaging inter-party conflict and an embarrassing PR disaster.
MassINC’s tracking polls, as well as those from Suffolk University, had typically shown Baker to have a commanding lead over Fisher, similar in number to the delegate tallies which came out of the party’s state convention. Baker confidently sat in the area of a 60 to 70 point lead, with Fisher never leaving the high single digits or low teens. Part of this had to do with Fisher’s name recognition, which started low, and never successfully took off. The primary was set to look like a repeat of the convention, and very well could have been, until only a handful of voters made the effort to show up on election day.
Government of the Interested, by the Interested, and for the Uninterested
The events of Tuesday offer Massachusetts voters a taste of what happens in low turnout elections. Candidates who face off against frontrunners in David vs. Goliathesque scenarios will traditionally benefit from low-turn out races. Billing himself as the “conservative alternative” to Charlie Baker, Fisher would weather the electoral seas with a smaller, yet more enthusiastic membership base. Whether it be from a deep resonance with the message or a personality trait that just woos them, such voters tend to show up for their candidate regardless of the political climate. Such surprises have been seen in the past, such as with the “Buchanan Brigades” of 2000, the “Ron Paul Revolution” in the last two presidential cycles, and most recently in Eric Cantor’s defeat at the hands of David Brat earlier this year.
Turnout in Charlton’s 4th precinct after 12 hours of being open.
Voter apathy created a scenario where Fisher voters suddenly gained a bigger presence in the pool, and he exceeded expectations and energized a base that the MassGOP has frequently had problems with. Claiming victory in a dozen and a half towns outright, as well as taking upward to 40% of the vote in every county west of Worcester, including in traditionally large population centers such as Worcester, Fitchburg, and Springfield, paints a much different picture than the 10% or so most polling had been expecting him to get.
Go West, Young Martha
Such a problem was not uniquely reserved for the MassGOP either, as the same can be said to have happened with the gubernatorial fisticuffs between Coakley, Grossman, and Berwick. Initial polling had given Coakley a safe lead since she left the convention, with Grossman only once bridging an otherwise large 20 point gap. Berwick often preformed in the low teens, with numbers similar to those seen by Mark Fisher in his race. The results? Coakley winning with a slight plurality of only five points.
Analyzing the results of Tuesday’s primaries shows a consistent trend seen with both parties; The further west you went, the weaker the “frontrunner” became. Political scientists can attribute this to the differing climate of western Massachusetts, and they wouldn’t be wrong, however, there’s a second factor to be considered in the direct decline in total number of voters. Galvin estimated that western Massachusetts would be the region most hit by poor voter turnout, and with some towns generating turnouts in the single digits. Low turnouts and declining votes create the perfect storm for firebrands and underdog candidates to shake things up, and create problems for parties further down the line.
If this remains constant, and it certainly has, it shouldn’t come as a surprise to see Massachusetts’ three independent candidates overperform expectations in November.
All politics was local
It’s very easy to dismiss such results as the normal voter apathy associated with primaries, but for Massachusetts, it goes further than just Tuesday’s primary. Like a weed, it has dug its roots into the innermost workings of local government. Local elections all over have plummeted to embarrassing lows, as well as turnout in Massachusetts’ last statewide elections. This writer’s native Charlton barely cracked 5% this last spring in a town of over 9,500 registered voters. When former Speaker of the House Tip O’Neal said all politics is local, the Massachusetts mammoth had no idea that large families would one day become electoral power-brokers.
A common question in election official circles is “what can we do?” A mix of traditional GOTV efforts have been only superficial, bringing voters to the polls who then proceed to either vote for single candidates, or vote once and never return. Voter dissatisfaction with the election process also remains a consistent issue. Since the primary elections of 2010, numerous voters have voiced encouragement with the notion of a blanket style primary, as is used in Louisiana, and in a way, California, but there’s significant concerns in whether this would actually damage the electoral process even more.
One thing for certain however, is that voters in the Cradle have been increasingly taking such a liberty for granted, and it’s only a matter of time before they find themselves stuck with a selection of candidates, as well as their parties, only representing those that bothered to show up.
But, perhaps, that’s exactly what might be needed to finally fix things.
